The National Balance sheet after Pokharan

"The White house has collapsed" - this is how the Newsweek magazine described the impact of Pokharan tests on America. The American spy satellites were blinded and the CIA was sedated. The US - and the World - came to know of the Pokharan tests only when the Prime Minister of India announced the news of the tests. Even China had to compliment India for the way the Indian officialdom made fool of the CIA.

Pokharan is the combined work of the military and atomic technologists, and military and civil officials. Battalions of armed forces were deployed. Local villagers knew that `some activity' was going on. This was on for weeks. And yet it was totally secret. Temporary and mobile huts were created to lay cables and to use torch lights without being detected. Many operations were carried out in moonlight only. The second series of two tests, conducted two days later on May 13, was more stunning than the first series of three - as they were executed before a wakeful World. The most important achievement of Pokharan tests is the proof that a soft state like India could perform what even iron curtain dictatorships failed to do. This is the message from Pokharan to Western strategists. This  adds an immeasurable value to the national balance sheet.

By the stunning technological expertise and even more stunning secrecy displayed, at one stroke, the World's view of India has changed. India is now regarded as a serious nation - not as an also ran. Everything concerning India has changed overnight. The usually united West has divided on the Indian Bomb; the Group of 8 too has split in its attitude on the Indian tests. The US establishment which was always united on Kashmir is now divided on the Indian blast. A powerful group of American leadership - whether it is Newt Gringrich or Jimmy Carter, Pattrick Moynihan or Henry Kissinger - see a clear justification for what India has done. Even Bill Clinton, who started off as a bully, has confessed that India should have been given greater regard by the World. The UN Chief, Kofi Annan, has said that the Indian action has awakened the World to the discriminatory attitude of the Nuclear Nations.

So the World has begun to take India seriously; it now regards India as a player in World affairs and not a helpless audience of the global games, as it was for decades. What does this mean ? The consequences are easy to perceive. Today, if an Indian representative took the mike at the UN, the hall will be full - and he will be heard with respect, eventhough India's GDP growth remains the same. If an Indian official stood up at the WTO to argue that the US is wrong, his points will merit attention, eventhough the external trade of India may stagnate.

India's voice would be as respectfully heard in IMF and World Bank meetings eventhough India remains a borrower. The reason is simple. Strength is the unspoken language of the World.

When China negotiated with the USA in the late 1970s and early 1980s, it had a poorer economy, but, it had atom bombs and missiles in its arsenal. So it negotiated from a position of strength. That was why when Deng Tsiao Peng massacred two thousand youths at Tianenman Square and the USA spoke of unending sanctions for violation of human rights, Deng said that the US was not foolish to give up billions of dollars of business for a couple of thousands of Chinese lives. Deng was proved right and in under two years China got back MFN status from USA. For, the US, or for that matter any Western nation, follows business principles in its politics - and not principled business.

That is precisely what is happening in the case of India too. Powerful American voices are justifying the Indian position today. This moderates the tough stand of the US government. For, they realise that they cannot ignore a nuclear India - while they could till the other day contemptuously ignore a pleading and borrowing India. A Bill to impose high duties on Indian textiles is proposed in the US Congress - and forthwith the US textile importers begin lobbying for India to defeat the Bill. The US government announces restrictions on US Banks from assisting Indian government - and immediately a consortium of US Banks submit a white paper to the US Treasury pleading with the US government to exempt from the sanctions dealings with the PSUs and nationalised Banks in India. This will make the sanctions worthless. The World Bank announces that the sanctions will not hit the lending programme of $8.5 billion already committed. Japan which was quick to announce stoppage of aid, was equally quick to clarify that nothing will affect trade with India. Germany announced a small aid cut, became deafeningly silent thereafter. France, Russia and UK flatly refused to join any sanction. To make their intent to do business with India, France offered nuclear reactors, and Russia nuclear submarines ! The lesson is obvious. Russia wants orders for war planes - and France needs orders for Airbus.

This is a World of traders and money spinners. The governments, whether it is of Bill Clinton of USA or Helmut Khol of Germany, ultimately succumb to business lobbies.

All that the West - and the USA - would be seeking from India is a face saving formula to do full business with us. Many formula making factories would be busy for the next two months. By the time Bill Clinton visits India in August next, the sanctions will have to go. Clinton cannot visit India when the sanctions are on. The crucial fact is that he has not cancelled his visit. This indicates the likely duration of the sanction. So the Balance sheet of India outside India does not seem bad at all.

Within India too, the national balance sheet looks alright. When Atal Behari Vajpayee threw five Bombs in Pokharan, all that the Congress could ask was `Why now ?'. The BJP responded by asking the Congress `Why not earlier ?' implying that the Congress and the UF had unduly delayed it. It is the CPM which asked "Why at all ?" fearing that the euphoria of the bomb harmonises with the BJP's ideology of cultural nationalism. Inder Gujral and Deve Gowda now regret why they did not do it earlier. So politically the national mind is almost united on this issue. The BJP has also shown commendable restraint in not making it a BJP Bomb. This is despite the fact that it is only Vajpayee who has shown guts as a leader after Lal Bhahadur Shastry and Indira Gandhi.

The Indian public has overwhelmingly welcomed the Bomb. Opinion polls show that almost the whole nation adores the nuclear tests - the only dispute is whether it is 87% or 91%. The surveys show that 86% of the people want India to weaponise, 88% believe that India will emerge stronger, and 92% feel proud as Indians after the tests. It is not that the public is unaware of the risks even as they overwhelmingly support the tests - 49% believe that Indo-US relations will worsen. For the Indians abroad, after the 1971 war victory, the atomic test is the only reason to feel proud about India.

Except a few Indian intellectuals for whom the very idea of nationalism amounts to jingoism, the whole nation is enjoying its new status and pride. For this small group love of India means ultranationalism. Love of America is perfectly legitimate in America, but, America feels that Indians may cross their limit in their love of their motherland and become a nuisance to others. We can understand the American apprehension because America operates without in depth knowledge of the Indian civilisation. But the small group intellectuals who think about India like the US establishment does is the only loophole in the national balance sheet within India.

In sum, the post-Pokharan Balance sheet of the nation seems to be better than what many had forecast. The status of the nation, and its voice have become strong overnight. Abul Khalam, Chidambaram, and Santhanam - incidentally all of them are from Tamil Nadu - have added a quantum leap to India's strength and pride which billions of dollars cannot do. The Pokharan Bombs have added immeasurable hidden wealth and value to the nation's balance sheet.