INDIAN AGENDA IN THE 21ST CENTURY WORLD

S.Gurumurthy

`Y2K' - where `y' stands for `year' and `2K' stands for the figure `2000' - is a computer term for the year 2000. It signals the beginning of the third millenium; it coincides with the start of the 21st Century. But, in the Computer World, `Y2K' is a symbol of a massive problem ahead, not the sign of a new beginning. The Computer World is working at breakneck speed to overcome what it regards as "the millenium bug" as the world approaches the fateful 1st January 2000.

What is this problem which is little known outside the computer world? Purely a problem of arithmatic. The entire computer world had had its mind so fixed to the second millenium, that it never occurred to them that the whole computer system would become inoperative on the first day of the third millenium. The Y2K problem has arisen because the 20th Century computer programmings had been designed only for the period from 1.1.1000 to 31.12.1999. It just missed out that the second millenium would end on 31.12.1999 whereafter `1999' should become `2000' - requiring the first digit to turn `2' automatically. This was not provided in the programming because it was not foreseen. That means, the best minds of the world did not have the basic vision or foresight, to factor Y2K into the programme. With the result Y2K has become the millenium bug.

When did the computer world first become aware of the Y2K problem? Not until 1995! That means the very computer technocrats who proclaim to be the vehicle of the 21st century were unprepared for the dawn of the new Century. In fact, they were unaware of what problem the millenium eve held out for them till two years ago.

This long exposition on Y2K demonstrates the total unpreparedness of the world and the world's best because of elementary lack of foresight. The millenium bug exposes not the problem of the future, but the utter incapacity to foresee an obvious problem.

The human mind has always presumed that it would see ahead - but it has invariably turned out that it is more unprepared than prepared for the events that unfold. Thus what the 21st Century conceals in wraps may be known only when Time reveals its secrets. What kind of millenium bugs are in the wombs of the 21st Century may never be guessed. When we look into the future, we cannot claim to know every thing that the new century has in store for us. All that we can say is that a hundred year perspective, based on the current knowledge extended into the future will constitute the vision for the future. Every nation and society need a vision for the future. When it approaches a new year, it will have a new year vision; when it approaches a new decade, it will have a vision for the new decade; when it approaches a new century, it will have a vision for the new century ahead. But such visions sometimes may not factor even obvious things like the Y2K phenomenon; and the inevitability of millenium bugs cannot impede the rationale or the process of envisioning. Vision of the future and the concealed Y2K's go together in human journey. It is with this consciousness, all nations and societies have to peep into the 21st Century.

Any vision of the future has only one reliable guide - the experience of the past. The past is a great master both as to what should be done in future and what should not be done. Because human mind keeps assessing its performance and judging whether it should have done what it has done, or should not have or should it have done it better. Just as time is a master teacher, it is also a great and reliable witness. It records the past, and the changes in a nation and in the world. Any vision of the 21st Century will bank heavily on the evidence tendered by the reli-able witness, `Time'. The experience of the 20th Century is the foundation for the vision of the 21st Century.

The 20th Century has witnessed massive changes in the world and in India. The world at the end of the 20th Century is vastly different from where it began. It was ravanged by two world wars; it was exploited by colonialism and capitalism; it was savaged by communism. But the post war world, which plunged into cold war, threw up a bipolar politics with the USA and the USSR emerging as the two opposite poles. In the competition between the efficient capitalism and the inefficient socialism, the efficient one emerged victorious; the Communist empires collapsed with the demolition of the Berlin wall and fragmentation of the Soviet Union. Nations split and the world turned multipolar. The collapse of socialism signalled, in the minds of many, the supremacy of the idea of capitalism - and implied, along with that the supremacy of the West, over the Rest. Now, to ensure that the perceived supremacy translates into the reality, the Western nations have began to work and build global regimes - for trade, finance, environment. The Rest including the former socialist nations have, atleast for the moment,signed up with the West. This where the world stands at present, seeking to guarantee the success of the West over the Rest.

Like it has been for the world, the 20th Century has been extremely turbulant and eventful for India, - yet, it witnessed the emergence of free India after several centuries of foreign rule in major parts of India. It saw the emergence of a more orga-nised assertion of Indian nationalism so as to match the need for a more unitary nation- state in modern times. It also saw the reassertion of the Indian civilisational and traditional values rendered dormant for centuries, as part of the freedom movement. It witnessed the rise of towering personalities - Swami Viveka-nanda, Maharishi Aurobindo, Balgangadhar Tilak, Mahatma Gandhi and many others in that tradition - who restarted the work of great saints like AdiSankara and Ramanuja and nation builders like Shivaji and Guru Gobind Singh. It also witnessed the parti-tion of India as a consequence of the inability of the national leadership to assimilate the exclusive Islamic political ideas into the national mainstream. Thus, while the Indian nationalism asserted during this century, it also suffered a set back by the partition of India. Because of which an Islamic state eternally hostile to India came into being with a long border with India through which it is continuously carrying on warfare with India from where Mohammed Ghazni and Mohammed Ghauri left.

While the first half of the last century saw mostly positive developments for India excepting for partition, the free India failed to measure upto its strength and competence largely because of the failure of post-independence political leadership. The post-independence India was hardly a continuation of the direction of the freedom movement; it was more a continuation of the British rule. In fact, it became an anti-climax. Instead of returning to the Indian roots after the British left, the post- independence Indian leadership pursued even more loyally than the English men did in India, the Anglo-Saxon values. In fact, instead of being change of the Rule, it became merely a change of Rulers - with the rule containing as before. In fact the English historians rightly describe it as a mere "transfer of power".

As a result, without understanding that the Indian tradition accepts all faiths as sacred, and instead of bringing the independent Indian State in tune with that tradition, the post independence leadership instituted a pseudo-secular regime relegating the inclusive Indian tradition to the status of a sectarian creed. In fact, the psuedo-secular polity virtually regarded every idea that fertilised the freedom movement as anti- modern and communal. Whether it was the idea of `spiritual nationalism' expounded by Swami Vivekananda, or the concept of `Sanatana dharma' held out as Indian nationalism by Maharishi Aurobindo, or the reverence to the motherland internalised in `Vandemataram' composed by Bunkim Chandra, or the ideal of `Ramrajya' held out by Mahatma Gandhi as the guiding principle of the Swaraj, every such noble idea became irrelevant for the post-independence secular regime. The extent of pressure that was built upon the Hindu psyche by the pseudo-secular regime can be judged by the fact that the Ramakrishna Mission founded by Swami Vivekananda to protect and defend the Hindu faith decided to declare itself as not a Hindu organisation, but a non-Hindu faith entitled to minority rights under the Constitution!

If secularism which had no application outside the christian civilisation and not relevant to a multi religious society wounded the soul of India, socialism eroded the competence, enterprise and the wealth of India. It distrupted the social balance, work ethics, respect for authority, village unity and industrial growth, and promoted irresponsible trade union leadership. It also instituted many an inefficient public sector enterprises. The only saving grace was that, unlike in other socialist coun-tries, the institution of respect for others property was not completely destroyed by the socialist rule in India.

Another significant erosion took place in the external front. Instead of emerging as a world power and claiming leadership through such power, India laid claim to be a world leader without exerting to become a world power. Its claim to leadership was based on its adherence to the traditional civilisational virtues, values and philosophic ideas of India which it disowned in its internal management of India in favour of the Anglo-Saxon world view. So the Indian leadership turned Anglo-Saxon within India, but expounded the civilisational values of India, outside India. But the cold-war world was not a respector of noble ideals; The only language in which it transacted business was power. India pleaded for nuclear restraint and refused to detonate nuclear devices. But it was not India, but, only the nuclear powers which became permanent members of the UN Security Council and set the agenda for the world. It was national failure for India at the global level.

The post-independence Indian leadership failed India within and outside. The brooding Indian mind began to express itself - it first exposed the pseudo-secular polity by massively responding to the Ayodhya movement; next, it abondoned socialism without a word of protest from the champions of socialism. The Indian civilisational assertion which took place against the alien establishment before independence and which was eclipsed by the indigenous rule, again manifested in the Indian polity, but, outside the establishment. But, in the process, the nation lost 50 precious years during which it was overtaken by many nations which were far behind India - economically, militarily and civilisationally. With the result after 50 years of indigenous rule, India is not just behind many who were once behind India, but it is behind even the India under the British in some respects. It is in a West centric world attempting to perpectuate the might of the West over the Rest that India is facing upto the challenge of the 21st Century that has been weakened by strenuous efforts put in by the Indian establishment

What are the emerging trends at the global level today? And in what direction does the world move? The collapse of communism led the west to different and even conflicting perceptions about what the world would be in the future. Broadly four distinct trends of thought are discernible: First, collapse of communism has signalled the final victory of the West and the western civilisation over the Rest.

Second, no; it is not the victory of the West over the Rest, it will be a case of West versus the Rest. Large scale civilisational consciousness triggered by religious and ethnic causes would manifest and there will be clashes among major civilisa-tions which will result in a world of diverse civilisations and not in a world civilisation modelled on the western world view.

Third, Yes, there will be civilisational clashes, but, not along religious or ethnic fault lines, but along the fault lines dividing post-modern, modern and pre-modern civilisations.

Fourth, None of thes hat civilisational consciousness powered by religion is manifesting and Islamic fundementalism is emerging as a major threat to the Western World is being pursued vigorously in the USA. Samuel Huntington, a strategic analyst of the US establishment, is a leading exponent of this view point. The view that the world will be tri-sected to post modern, modern and premodern societies and may even lead to the disintegration of the present nation-States because of the Information Technology revolution and city-based civilisational homogenity at the global level, is also being widely discussed. Finally, the perceived decay of the Capitalist arder is also being discussed in different quarters. In USA 60% of the growth has been monopolised by the top 1% of the population and the top 20% has grabbed all growth with 60% of the people earning less in real terms as compared to two decades earlier. Newt Gengrich, the Chairman of the American Senate asks, "When 12 year olds carry babies, 14 year olds kill each other, 16 years olds have HIV positive, and 18 year olds get diplomas which they cannot read, what kind of civilisation are we building"

Thus the West is debating where they are leading to first, before trying to judge where the world is heading, and whether they will lead the world, and if so where. The West also has no clear clue as to where things are moving. Just as the computer experts had no clue as to the Y2k problem just two years back, the best minds of the West are not clear what the direction of the West and of the World will be. Will the world witness clash between religion-inspired civilisations? or between premodern, modern and post modern civilisations? or will the world witness a decay of the Capitalist order itself? And yet despite being unclear about its direction as well as that of the world, the West is pushing ahead with its agenda to build a world regime in trade, environment and weapons so as to maintain its supremacy. The West is concerned about the rise of China - and the USA is therefore willing to placate it by diverse means. Because, besides being a rising economic power, China has immense military power supported by its massive population. The West is not too much concerned about the economic growth of Japan, Korea or Taiwan - because these nations do not have military prowess. What challenges the supremacy of the West is the combination of economic power and military might. The net result of all emerging trends project a West vs the Rest scenario for the 21st century.

This is where, the West, particularly USA, perceives India as an emerging threat to the Western supremacy. What the Indians intellectuals regard as a liability, the size of India in numbers, is not exactly so in the Western mind. If China had a population of 100 million, the USA would not bother about it. The West knows that size is a strategic and economic power. India has large resources, vast manpower and technical competence; it's economic assertion has just begun. It has fought and won wars. It's military might is appreciable. It is in this context that India's atomic explosion has unnerved the West,particularly the USA. It has shocked the US into realising that India could no more be viewed as a non-serious entity. Its perceptions, and the global perceptions, about India have changed. In the eyes of the West and of the World, India is no more a soft state, a docile country. It is now regarded as a serious nation. It is viewed as an emerging economic super power. Again like China, it has military might as well as economic potentiality.

But how does the India's leadership, intellectuals and in general, the Indian establishment perceive India? It is precisely here that there is failure of national will and consensus. The Indian leaders, intellectuals, business men and professionals lack self-confidence and, therefore, they lack confidence in India. They have, over the years, inherited an inferiority complex, particularly in dealing with the West. In the cold war bipolar world, the Indian establishment could deal with the West with a measure of confidence because of the existance of a Competing power centre. But, after the collapse of communism and particularly, since the economic set back of India in 1991, there is a perceptible lack of confidence in the Indian establishment to deal with the West. This was most visible in our economic regime - particularly when P. Chidambaram was the Finance Minister. With the Phokaran atomic test, the Indian establishment has definitely received a psycho therapy to enhance its self confidence. But unfortunately, instead of using the national response to the atomic test to build up strong national will and self confidence, the national leadership allowed the massive public response to cool without being articulated to strengthen the nation. Yet, the Indian nation is not the same after the Phokaran blasts; though given a stronger and more united polity, it could have demonstrated a greater confidence as a nation. Thus, the first task of the Indian nation is to ensure that to the Indian elite - intellectuals, political leaders, and others - India is a matter of pride; not a liability, a burden to livewith. The nation needs a psychotherapy - and a comprehensive agenda.

Situated as we are, what should India do to emerge as a world power with a strong economy and defence? In short, what is the Indian agenda for the 21st century? To emerge as an economic super power in the next 10 years, India must work on a clear national and international agenda. Such an agenda will be integrated economic, political and foreign policy package.

The economic package of India must be founded on the basic truth that 1/6 of humanity cannot develop on the shoulders of any nation or groups of them. It has to develop largely on its own terms and model suited to its conditions with critical inputs from the global regime. A few suggestions for an alternative pursuit.

The first trigger for Indian economic growth lies in agriculture. We irrigate hardly a third of our lands under cultivation. We have twice as large plain lands as USA and one and half times as large as China's. We have a whole year's sunshine. The entire increase of agricultural production since 1950 has occured in 30% of our cultivable areas. We can and should double our agricultural production in the next 10 years. This is what China did between 1983 and 1993 and this precisely what we failed to do. We laid waste our greatest asset - namely our lands and the village labour working on them. Massive investment in agriculture, and increased food production will activate large scale economic recovery in India.

The second trigger is a harmonious energy and multi model transport planning. We must go for nuclear energy for our long term power needs with coastal transport and canal transport to ease pressure on highways and roads.

The third trigger is the non corporate sector which accounts for 40% of our GDP . This sector has immense potentiality for growth which is unexplored because of our obsession with the corporate sector.

The fourth trigger is textiles which accounts for 30% of exports and the largest industrial employment. We need to invest a large amount in its modernisation to take advantage of the quota-free regime in the West.

The fifth trigger is the miniature paradigm - IT product and software exports as thrust areas. On the FDI front we should go in for huge Airport and seaports which cannot be funded by Indian Capital and the traffic to maintain which has to come from abroad by making India a hub centre. This will ensure that FDI does not displace the Indian capital or disrupt local business. Such investments will also put India on the global map as an aggresively developing economy like China.

We should consciously promote India based and Indian owned transnational corporate and regard international trade as war - and not mere trade.

But, even as we plan our strategy on the above lines, the one care which we have to take is that we should never allow the Indian finance system to be dominated by foreign financial institution or banks. We should never make our currency fully convertible. The disaster that over took South Asia is essentially because of the full convertibility of their currencies. India must understand that despite adhering to all norms for a sound economy - high savings rate, sound fiscal management, growing exports, open economy, which are prescribed by IMF and World Bank,- these countries failed only because the present global currency regime could turn even a sound economy insolvent. We must also understand that free trade faces the greatest danger from licentious and speculative trade in finance. Keynes had said that money is basically a destabiliser; true to his word the international currency regime has turned a great destabiliser. The current free currency regime which came into being in 1971, is the very opposite of what the IMF had designed, and also the IMF was designed for. Therefore, the current global currency market regime cannot survive for long unless it is disciplined through some - multilateral agreement. India should, therefore, refrain from opening its finance, bank and insurance areas for foreign ownership as that will exert presssure to fully float the the Indian Currency. India should never go for full convertibili-ty under any circumstances. Even an ardent devotee of globalisa-tion like Dr. Jagadish Bhagwath has advised "ignore full con-vertability like a plague".

Collaterally, India must work for long term political economic and defence treaty with Russia and China. This combination will be the most effective arrangement to counter the supremacy of the West so as to maintain balance between the West and the Rest. There is a reason why Japan cannot become part of this arrangement. However great Japan is, unless it acquires defence might, it cannot be independent of the West. Therefore, India has to work to normalise its relationship with China - and it must also solve the border problem with China in a spirit of accommodation. India and China have a non conflicting religious and civilisa-tional past. In contrast, the Turk-Moghul history of India has created a conflicting civilisational past between India and Pakistan. Pakistan became China's friend only when China and India drifted apart, - and on the principle of enemy's enemy as friend. Yet another area of foreign policy initiative for India is to develop intense political, and trade relationship with the non-Saudi Arab countries - particularly Iraq, Iran, Egypt and Syria. Also India should work to ensure that the WTO does not impinge anymore on the sovereignity of individual nations by extending the frontiers of multilateralism. India must mobilise the third world countries before the September 1999 mimsterial conference of the WTO and seek to arrest the expansionism of WTO and also to review some of the current terms of the multilater-al regime.

This is the broad framework for India in the context of the present trends in the world. But if the global situation changes, there may have to be changes in the Indian agenda. The Indian thrust must be to play the national game at the global level and prevent global games at the national level. For this purpose, it must keep its strategy flexible and its entire approach must be based on what is good for India - nothing more or less. The traditional Indian view that "world is one family' and that the "whole world must be happy and prosperous" shall wait till India becomes strong enough to plead for the cause of whole humanity.

Even as India envisions for the 21st century, it should be conscious that 21st century is like any other 100 years ahead of a society. It is a continuity - not an enclosure. In the Indian tradition, a block of 100 years has a significant place. Tai triya Upanishad says "Saradam Satam" (live 100 years). A hundred year life span covers three generations of continuity - grand father, son and grandson. It is therefore a three generation time scale. The son of India born in the 21st century will have to think of his grandson. Thus, the idea of time measured in spans of 100 years is internalised in the Indian mind. This is despite the fact that the time sense in the Indian tradition is measured in 'Yugas' and its time consciousness is integrated with the idea of timeless continuity or 'sanatana dharma'. It is this timeless view of life, that has made Indian nation eternal, its civilisation a continuity, witnessing the faster growth and instant demise of a number of nations and civilisations which have grown like creepers and topped an ageless banyan tree, and their death. Swami Vivekananda says "there have been nations which have come and gone living a few hours of exhultant and of exhuberant domi-nance and a wicked national life and then vanishing like ripples on the face of waters", but "India", said Vivekananda "lives". And it lives as a witness to tell the stories about the number of creepers and ripples it has seen. Is it because of the longer time sense of India measured in Yugas, finally merging into the time less idea of `Sanatana dharma'?